Exit From Affco

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Biden's "Czar" of the Pacific - Kurt Campbell and The Asia Group

 The US's pivot to the greater Asia-Pacific region, away from the Middle East, has been the subject of much focus. Increasingly, Washington and its allies are asserting themselves again in the region as China seeks to gain more geopolitical influence. Over the past few years, the US has been re-establishing embassies, soft power organisations, and inking security agreements with countries that haven't seen much attention from the US since the Cold War wound down. In August last year, USAID announced it would reopen its office in Fiji's capital, which should raise the eyebrows of anyone with a cursory knowledge of USAID. USAID's previous office in Suva served as a primary conduit for buying out the Alliance government during the 1980s, and USAID employee William Paupe was accused of funding the E-Taukei movement that later led to the 1987 coups.

But relatively little noise has been made about the wanton corruption going on in the State Department, both under Biden and specifically underpinning the new pivot towards the Asia-Pacific. A major part of this is the myriad of connections many political appointees have to firms which are legalised corruption operations in all but name, hawking current and previous political connections to anyone who's buying. Since they are deemed consultants, not lobbyists, they avoid any of the registration or disclosures usually required. This sort of influence peddling has obviously been going on for decades in Washington, but Biden's administration has arguably turned even more of a blind eye than ones previous. 

Current Secretary of State Antony Blinken co-founded WestExec Advisors with a host of former Obama officials in 2017, offering "strategic consulting" to clients supplied by "people recently coming out of government" with "current knowledge, expertise, contacts, [and] networks". Former employees include Jen Psaki and current deputy director of the CIA David S. Cohen, with clients ranging from Blackstone, Facebook and McKinsey to MIC firms like Palantir and Boeing. Top National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan worked for similar firm Macro Advisory Partners before joining the Biden admin. But out of many lobbying firms to focus on, one has been influential in specifically the Asia-Pacific region, co-founded and led by the man many now consider the architect of the US pivot to the Pacific. 

The Asia Group was founded in 2013 by Kurt Campbell and Nirav Patel, colleagues from the first Obama State Department on the East Asian and Pacific desk. Before joining the Obama admin in 2009, Campbell had previously co-founded the Centre for a New American Security, served as director of the Aspen Strategy Group, and was head of the Democracy Office at the National Security Council during the Clinton years. Both established deep links in the region during their time in office, with Campbell especially gaining influence as Clinton's key advisor and negotiator in the Pacific. Campbell travelled extensively with Clinton on state visits, for example helping shape the 2010 Wellington Declaration that was the first real softening of direct military relations since the nuclear ship ban. For this effort, and likely a few others, Campbell was appointed an honorary Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit for services to relations in 2014. 

Campbell left his State Department position in 2013, a month after he filed to register The Asia Group in Delaware, and served as the company's CEO until 2021. He published The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia in 2016, outlining his vision of an American repositioning towards to the new frontier of capital and conquest, the Asia-Pacific region. The Asia Group seeks to bridge the public and private sectors, offering services such as "integrated government relations", "regulatory redress to overcome discriminatory market barriers", "in-market advocacy and engagement", and "proactive risk monitoring and mitigation". There's a wide variety of consultants available on TAG's website, with the services of retired Japanese Lt. Gen. Koichi Isobe, the former Australian PM Chief of Staff Arthur Sinodinos, some former East Asian CIA station chiefs, and a whole host of State Department spooks. Speculation about dual loyalties of former employees is not unfounded, as employees of TAG have been caught out still working for the company while ostensibly in government positions. A former employee said the work the Asia Group does for clients is "innately corrupt". Earlier this year, Jonathan Guyer for The Lever (login paywall) wrote about Steven Yun working simultaneously as presidential envoy in the Pacific to Biden and senior advisor to the Asia Group. 

"Unlike what is federally mandated for most political appointees, Yun held a special designation as a presidential envoy and was not required to publicly disclose his clients, income, and investments. The potential appearances of a conflict alone were plentiful, as Yun continued to hold meetings at The Asia Group’s office."

As presidential envoy, Yun negotiated 9-digit deals to install and expand radar and missile defence systems in Micronesia. Speaking to the Heritage Foundation about Micronesian islands in July 2023, Yun said "the most important thing we get out of them is, of course, access to their land, their air, and their water."

The Asia Group is secretive about specific clients, but in corporate bios lists industries as wide as "financial services, health and pharmaceuticals, technology and telecommunications, manufacturing and logistics, media, tourism and hospitality, energy and mining, aerospace and civil aviation, and defense." However, specific names have come out. Campbell, before joining the Biden admin, had to submit a financial disclosure report as part of new rules for consultants instituted by Biden. This declaration, amended twice after it was requested by the Project on Government Oversight, lists Campbell as still retaining partial ownership over the Asia Group, which might be a conflict of interest for the man being appointed the National Security Advisor for the Indo-Pacific. Campbell's list of personal retainer payments includes companies like Lockheed Martin, McKinsey, Northrup Grumman, Raytheon, General Electric and Levi Strauss. During his time at TAG, Campbell was allegedly being paid $25,000 a month by various defense firms to travel to Australia once a year to pitch the sale of more US weapons to defense heads there.

In his role as the National Security Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, Campbell been instrumental in shaping some of the most aggressive American policy towards China and in the Pacific in arguably decades. Campbell was promoted to Deputy Secretary of State in February this year, giving him even more control over policy in the region. In what I'm sure is a coincidence, his new fellow Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma served as vice-chair of a company known as The Asia Group from 2017 to 2020. In April, speaking at his old company the Centre for a New American Security, he let it slip that the US intended for Australia's AUKUS submarines to be used in a potential face-off with China over Taiwan. In August, he was caught on a hot-mic at the Pacific Islands Forum by RNZ journalist Lydia Lewis talking to PM Albanese about security deals in the Pacific, as Western countries with interests compete with China over policing and security deals. Western countries have been rattled by China's recent agreements with Fiji, Kiribati, Samoa, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, and have responded by intensifying efforts to sign competing agreements. Campbell told Albanese the US had "given [Australia] the lane" to lead a $400m Pacific policing pact, with Albanese jokingly asking if they'd go "halvsies" on the deal. Campbell has been active again in New Zealand as well, visiting Luxon and holding several meetings after the Pacific Islands Forum to discuss AUKUS Pillar Two, referring to NZ and the US as "the closest of partners"

"The pair discussed the AUKUS programme as both countries were exploring what a lesser level could look like. Campbell said he believed there were 'lots of things that we can do together on the defence and security side'. ... 'I think it'd be fair to say that the government is exploring what are its necessary investments.' ... '[Luxon] was very gracious and we talked about our hopes to take the [US, New Zealand bilateral relationship] to the next level and also how we might work together in areas to deepen multilateral engagement in the Pacific and also in Asia more broadly. By taking it to the next level, Campbell said there were 'enormous possibilities' in how New Zealand could share its technology infrastructure with the States and that the two nations could deepen their economic ties."

PM Luxon meeting with Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in August 2024
PM Luxon meeting with Deputy
Secretary of State Kurt Campbell

He also mentioned our assistance in helping the US return to the Pacific, saying “the country that has given us the most able counsel about how to step nimbly, how to listen carefully, how to execute efficiently and effectively is New Zealand... and so I'm not at all shy about saying that they have been the central essential ingredient in our step up in the Pacific.” I'm sure all the old friends he's built up in New Zealand are bending over backwards to help. Campbell also heavily implied the US wanted to see more direct investment into the NZDF. He specifically mentioned the aging navy as an area of focus, wanting more maritime patrols to counter "provocative actions" in the South China Sea. RNZAF's recent purchase of new Boeing P-8 surveillance aircraft is sure to be helpful to America, and The Asia Group, and both their ambitions in the Pacific. 

Australia got sold an immensely raw deal on AUKUS, with ex-PM Morrison having already cashed out by joining the Centre for a New American Security as an advisor, and DYNE Maritime, an MIC company which has investments in AUKUS-related technology. The turn onto the path for a conflict with China was arguably taken under Labour in New Zealand, with Ardern strengthening relations, taking a more forceful approach with China, and Little spending the second term begin work on reforming the NZDF, work now being undertaken by Judith "Desert Fox" Collins. Whether the government will be willing to pony up the massive capital investments required to bring the NZDF up to scratch, or overcome the drop in enlistment numbers will remain to be seen, but Pillar Two will function as a backdoor to bring New Zealand into this conflict in either way.

Entering AFFCO

I realised I've never really done a proper introduction, so here's at least a little bio sans much personal information. I’ve been interested in history, and by consequence politics, for most of my life. I came across the field with many names, but what I’ll refer to as “deep politics”, in the past few years like a decent number of people I know. For an English-speaking audience, a lot has been put out about American-related intrigues, but a few years ago, I saw a Twitter post which in part implored people to "go local", which has been an idea that has subsequently stuck with me.

After some time away, I rejoined Twitter late last year, and have been a bit surprised at how (comparatively) popular some threads have been, so I've thought about doing a podcast in that vein. However, I don't feel quite ready to undertake a project like that, and want to remain as detached from the Content Creator Industrial Complex as possible, so this blog will be a mediation between that and something shorter-form. This will focus primarily on New Zealand or NZ-adjacent topics, with likely diversions into the Pacific, Australia and the US when necessary. 

There's a piece you can read now about the new US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his "consulting firm" The Asia Group. I'll be publishing updated versions of some Twitter threads over the next few weeks, as well as a long-form piece about the 1987 Fiji coups, collating together a few months of research on the topic. I also have a piece or two that should be coming out once a certain person's (tim)e under name suppression expires. Until we meet again.


From the deep bowels of AFFCO - Smith K. Stead

Biden's "Czar" of the Pacific - Kurt Campbell and The Asia Group

 The US's pivot to the greater Asia-Pacific region, away from the Middle East, has been the subject of much focus. Increasingly, Washing...